At present, the negative electrode material market is maintaining stability, and the operating situation of negative electrode enterprises has slightly rebounded. Enterprises often formulate production plans based on comprehensive inventory and orders, but the inventory of semi-finished and finished products in the early stage of top enterprises is still at a high level; In terms of demand, some battery companies have backup plans, but the actual increment is limited.
1. Negative electrode companies’ views on the shipment situation in the first quarter and the growth of shipments throughout the year
Most companies in the industry saw a 20% -30% decrease in their shipment volume in Q1 compared to the previous quarter, mainly due to the overall impact of downstream battery companies destocking in the first quarter. After the second quarter, as the impact of destocking decreases, the shipment volume will increase month on month. Throughout the year, due to the reversal of industry supply and demand, the competitive landscape is more intense, and top companies hope to maintain a shipment volume of over 30%.
2. Negative electrode companies’ views on profitability and operational strategies
The overall strategy of the current negative electrode head enterprise is to maintain quantity and hope to maintain high capacity utilization. From a profit perspective, enterprises with cost advantages in 23Q1 have a single ton profit of about 6000-7000 yuan, while other top enterprises have a single ton profit of about 2000-3000 yuan. Most enterprises have experienced losses. Currently, the industry believes that top enterprises in Jiangxi Zichen (Putai) and Shangtai Technology have a relative advantage in the continued price war, with a single ton profit advantage of about 6000 yuan.
3. Opinions on Cost Reduction Space in the Negative Electrode Industry
Leading companies believe that there is still enough room for cost reduction in future negative electrode products, and in the graphitization process, processing cost control can be achieved through process adjustments; In the carbonization process, centralized processes can be adopted to replace electricity with natural gas, improving energy efficiency and reducing energy costs; There are corresponding process technology improvement plans for the crushing and granulation processes to increase yield; In the aspect of raw materials, try to use diversified raw materials such as medium and high sulfur petroleum coke, biomass graphite and composite graphite to reduce the cost.
4. Opinions on the clearance time of the negative electrode industry
From an industry perspective, top companies believe that the negative electrode material industry has entered the stage of de inventory, and the industry reshuffle has just begun. It is expected to enter the liquidation stage of negative electrode companies in the next 2-3 years.
Post time: May-25-2023